3️⃣-2️⃣Why Are Profits Negative?

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Why Arbitrage Profits Can Go Negative – The Role of Pumping & Dumping 📉📈

💡 Common Misconception: "Arbitrage is risk-free." 🚨 Reality: Arbitrage profits can turn negative due to unpredictable market movements caused by pumping & dumping mechanics.

1️⃣ Understanding the "Pumping Effect" in Arbitrage

  • When an arbitrage bot buys a token on one exchange (low price) and sells on another (high price), it creates buy pressure on the first exchange.

  • This buying pressure causes the price to increase, reducing the profit margin.

  • As more traders (or bots) enter the same arbitrage trade, the price imbalance self-corrects, eventually eliminating the profit opportunity.

🔹 Example:

  1. Bot detects TON trading at $2.00 on STON.fi and $2.10 on Binance.

  2. It buys TON on STON.fi and sells on Binance, profiting from the $0.10 spread.

  3. However, repeated purchases on STON.fi pump the price, making further trades less profitable or even negative if slippage is high.


2️⃣ The "Dumping Effect" & Why Profits Can Become Negative

  • On the selling exchange, repeated sell orders create sell pressure, causing the price to drop.

  • If the bot sells too aggressively, the price can fall below the initial buy price, resulting in a net loss.

🔹 Example:

  1. The bot buys 100 TON at $2.00 on STON.fi and sells on Binance at $2.10.

  2. After multiple trades, Binance’s price drops to $1.98 due to excessive sell pressure.

  3. If the bot cannot execute its sell orders fast enough, it might be forced to sell at a lower price than its buy price, leading to negative returns.

[Example of Duming And Pumping Effect]

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